Paper Title
Trend Analysis in Meteorological Variables using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s Slope Estimator Tests in Katha Basin
Abstract
This study investigates potential climate shifts in the upper Ayeyarwady River Basin (focusing on the Katha
Basin, Myanmar) by analyzing trends in precipitation and temperature data (1982-2022) from five meteorological stations.
Tests involving non-parametric trend analysis are used in conjunction with bootstrapping. Additionally, cumulative sum
charts (CUSUM) are utilized to identify potential change points. These findings reveal a significant increase in mean annual
rainfall at two stations (Katha and Myitkyinā) with a decrease observed at Bhamo station. All stations exhibit a significant
warming trend in annual temperature. Some stations (Myitkyinā, Bhamo, and Katha) exhibit rises in summer and rainy
season temperatures, while Puta-O and Machanbaw indicate a drop in comparable temperatures. Winter temperatures
displays a significant increase at all stations. Change points are identified in both precipitation and temperature time series
for all stations, with high confidence levels based on bootstrap analysis. These results can inform future water resource
management strategies, disaster preparedness plans, and adaptation efforts to mitigate the impacts of climate changein the
Katha Basin.
Keywords - Bootstrapping,Climate Change, Cumulative Sum Charts (CUSUM), Katha Basin, Trend Analysis